Imports at the nation’s major retail container ports are expected to see their final surge of the year this month ahead of new tariffs set to take effect in December, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Retailers are highly competitive, but the ability to compete has been challenging this year because of the uncertainty of the trade war and continued tariff escalation,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers are encouraged by reports that China and the United States have agreed to remove at least some of the existing tariffs once a ‘phase one’ deal is signed. We are eager to see concrete evidence that the trade war is coming to an end with a final deal that removes all tariffs.”
President Trump announced tentative agreement on a partial trade deal with China last month, but officials are still working on the details and have not announced a date or location for the measure to be signed. An October tariff increase was canceled and news reports this week indicate that some tariffs could be removed, but there has been no word on a new round of tariffs on consumer goods currently scheduled to take effect December 15.
NRF will host a news conference next week in Washington where officials from the Port of Los Angeles and other groups will discuss the impact of the trade war.
“Industry planning is in a state of confusion with the on-again, off-again tariff increases and the widening of trade disputes,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Where is all of this leading us? As long as consumer spending remains relatively stable, economic growth – despite being weaker – will keep the country on track for the next year.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.87 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 0.2 percent year-over-year but was down 4.7 percent from August, when imports saw their second-highest level on record – 1.97 million TEU – ahead of tariffs that took effect September 1. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.
October was estimated at 1.93 million, down 5.2 percent from last year’s record 2 million TEU. November is forecast at 1.96 million TEU, up 8.3 percent year-over-year and tying last December and this July for the third-highest number of containers in a single month. But imports are expected to fall to 1.78 million TEU in December, down 9.2 percent from near-record numbers last year ahead of scheduled tariffs that were later postponed. The expected drop from November will come as December’s tariffs take effect, but the month historically sees a falloff in imports because most holiday merchandise has already arrived by that point.
The first half of 2019 totaled 10.5 million TEU, up 2.1 percent over the first half of 2018, and 2019 is expected to see a new annual record of 22 million TEU. That would be up 1 percent from last year’s previous record of 21.8 million TEU.
January 2020 is forecast at 1.85 million TEU, down 2.3 percent from January 2019. February – traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia – is forecast at 1.59 million TEU, down 2.1 percent from a year ago. March is forecast at 1.76 million TEU, up an unusually high 9.1 percent because of fluctuations in the Lunar New Year calendar.
The European Commission and the UK signed a Brexit deal
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The European Commission has reached today an agreement with the United Kingdom on the terms of its future cooperation with the European Union.
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen said: “It was worth fighting for this deal because we now have a fair and balanced agreement with the UK, which will protect our European interests, ensure fair competition, and provide much-needed predictability for our fishing communities. Finally, we can leave Brexit behind us and look to the future. Europe is now moving on.”
The European Commission’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier, said: “We have now come to the end of a very intensive four-year period, particularly over the past nine months, during which we negotiated the UK’s orderly withdrawal from the EU and a brand new partnership, which we have finally agreed today. The protection of our interests has been front and center throughout these negotiations and I am pleased that we have managed to do so. It is now for the European Parliament and the Council to have their say on this agreement.”
The draft Trade and Cooperation Agreement consists of three main pillars:
- A Free Trade Agreement: a new economic and social partnership with the United Kingdom
- The agreement covers not just trade in goods and services, but also a broad range of other areas in the EU’s interest, such as investment, competition, State aid, tax transparency, air and road transport, energy and sustainability, fisheries, data protection, and social security coordination.
- It provides for zero tariffs and zero quotas on all goods that comply with the appropriate rules of origin.
- Both parties have committed to ensuring a robust level playing field by maintaining high levels of protection in areas such as environmental protection, the fight against climate change and carbon pricing, social and labour rights, tax transparency, and State aid, with effective, domestic enforcement, a binding dispute settlement mechanism and the possibility for both parties to take remedial measures.
- The EU and the UK agreed on a new framework for the joint management of fish stocks in the EU and UK waters. The UK will be able to further develop British fishing activities, while the activities and livelihoods of European fishing communities will be safeguarded, and natural resources preserved.
- On transport, the agreement provides for continued and sustainable air, road, rail, and maritime connectivity, though market access falls below what the Single Market offers. It includes provisions to ensure that competition between EU and UK operators takes place on a level playing field, so that passenger rights, workers’ rights, and transport safety are not undermined.
- On energy, the agreement provides a new model for trading and interconnectivity, with guarantees for open and fair competition, including on safety standards for offshore, and production of renewable energy.
- On social security coordination, the agreement aims at ensuring a number of rights of EU citizens and UK nationals. This concerns EU citizens working in, traveling, or moving to the UK and to UK nationals working in, traveling, or moving to the EU after 1st January 2021.
- Finally, the agreement enables the UK’s continued participation in a number of flagship EU programs for the period 2021-2027 (subject to a financial contribution by the UK to the EU budget), such as Horizon Europe.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement covers a number of areas that are in the EU’s interest. It goes well beyond traditional free trade agreements and provides a solid basis for preserving our longstanding friendship and cooperation. It safeguards the integrity of the Single Market and the indivisibility of the Four Freedoms (people, goods, services, and capital). It reflects the fact that the UK is leaving the EU’s ecosystem of common rules, supervision, and enforcement mechanisms, and can therefore no longer enjoy the benefits of EU membership or the Single Market. Nevertheless, the Agreement will by no means match the significant advantages that the UK enjoyed as a Member State of the EU.
Even with the new EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement in place, there will be big changes on 1 January 2021.
On that date, the UK will leave the EU Single Market and Customs Union, as well as all EU policies and international agreements. The free movement of persons, goods, services, and capital between the UK and the EU will end.
The EU and the UK will form two separate markets; two distinct regulatory and legal spaces. This will create barriers to trade in goods and services and to cross-border mobility and exchanges that do not exist today – in both directions.
India and US in negotiations to make a trade deal
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India and the US are in negotiations to make a trade agreement. The Commerce and Industry Minister Shri Piyush Goyal has invited the United States commercial enterprises to take the bilateral exchange to new heights. Addressing the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) via a digital convention, ShriGoyal stated that the 2 democracies percentage deep dedication with each other, on the Government, Business and those to people to people levels.
Both nations trust in free and fair trade and the United States is India’s biggest buying and selling partner. He said that going beyond trade, in this interconnected world, the two nations can be the resilient trusted partners in the global value chain.
He further indicated to the members of US-India Strategic Partnership Forum about the initiatives taken by the government to facilitate industry and investments. He said that a GIS-enabled land bank has been launched on pilot basis, with six states on board, which will help the investors in identifying the land and location.
India is ready to sign an initial limited trade package, and it is upto the US to move ahead, he said.
The US is eager for a deal in advance of its presidential elections in November and had indicated that a preliminary deal ought to encompass recuperation of the GSP advantages to India and marketplace entry for each other’s agricultural products. India has demanded exemption from excessive obligations imposed on steel , aluminium products and its farm products, even as the United States is looking to have a market entry for its farm production, merchandise and clinical devices.
He said, the trade deal has challenges but also a number of opportunities. This could be a foundational exchange deal on the way to deepen our engagement going forward.
India is focused to encourage our industry to be a part of resilient global value chains.
India will have its own quality standards and we are open to learning from standards of the world. Soon all procurement will be based on Indian standards. pic.twitter.com/MpasX6tLeF
— Piyush Goyal (@PiyushGoyal) September 1, 2020
India ranks first in number of organic farmers and Sikkim becomes first state in the world to become fully organic
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As the global pandemic situation continues the demand for access to good quality food is on the rise and it’s a high priority to India. In a very recent official statement from the government, India ranks first within the number of organic farmers and ninth in terms of area under organic farming. Also Sikkim became the first state in the world to become fully organic and other states such as Tripura and Uttarakhand have similar goals.
With the aim of aiding farmers to adopt organic farming and improve remunerations, government had introduced two dedicated programs specifically Mission Organic Value Chain Development for North East Region (MOVCD) and Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) were launched in 2015 to encourage organic farming.
The major organic exports from India are flax seeds, sesame, soybean, tea, medicinal plants, rice and pulses, which were instrumental in driving an rise of nearly 50% in organic exports in 2018-19, touching Rs 5151 crore.
Modest commencement of exports from Assam, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland to UK, USA, Swaziland and Italy have proved the potential by increasing volumes and expanding to new destinations because the demand for health foods increases.
Both Mission Organic Value Chain Development and Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana are promoting certification under Participatory Guarantee System (PGS) and National Program for Organic Production (NPOP) respectively targeting local and international markets.
Before making a purchase a consumer should look for the logos of FSSAI, Jaivik Bharat / PGS Organic India on the produce to ascertain the organic authenticity of the product. This can be a very important element of an organic produce.
Presently, the commodities with highest potential include ginger, turmeric, black rice, spices, nutri cereals, pineapples, medicinal plants, buckwheat, bamboo shoots, etc. Supplies of organic produce has started from the north eastern region including for Mother Dairy from Meghalaya, Revanta Foods and Big Basket from Manipur.
The organic e-commerce platform www.jaivikkheti.in is being strengthened for directly linking farmers with retail as well as bulk buyers. Infusion of digital technology in a much bigger way has been a major takeaway during the pandemic period.
Indian organic farmers will soon be reinforcing the top place in the global agriculture trade.
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