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DNV forecasts oil demand in transport sector to half by 2050

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DNV forecasts oil demand in transport sector to half by 2050. Image: DNV
DNV forecasts oil demand in transport sector to half by 2050. Image: DNV
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Electricity is continuing to gain traction in previously thought to be hard-to-electrify sectors including heavy trucking and aviation. Electricity’s share in transport will grow from 1% today to 23% in 2050, according to DNV’s latest Transport in Transition report. DNV’s Transport in Transition report is a deep dive into the energy transition of transport – the most dynamic of the energy demand sectors through to 2050. The report draws on DNV’s system dynamics-based Energy Transition Outlook model and explores the vast changes in fuels, electricity and infrastructure needed to transport ever-larger numbers of people and volumes of freight while at the same time decarbonizing the sector.

Despite oil demand in the transport sector forecast to half by 2050, the present pace of the transition still falls severely short of the goals of the Paris Agreement. Opportunities to accelerate change through pilot projects and uptake of alternative energy need to be seized as soon as possible. Today, transport of passengers and goods accounts for about a quarter of global energy-related CO2 emissions, a share that will grow to 30% by 2050.

Road transport leads the way in reducing reliance of fossil fuels, falling from 38 million barrels per day (bpd) today, to 19 million bpd in 2050, reducing share from 91% to 57%. Conversely, the consumption of oil within aviation will be virtually flat to 2050, with hydrocarbons set to have a 60% share in the sector in the same year.

Driven by the decarbonization push, the fuel mix in the maritime sector will also change significantly over the coming decades. By 2050, it will likely transition from being almost entirely oil-based to an energy mix comprising of 50% low- and zero-carbon fuels, 19% natural gas and 18% biomass. Electricity will obtain only a 4% share, from short sea shipping and port stays for larger vessels.

Regions such as Europe, North America and Greater China are frontrunners in the uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In parallel, those regions are investing in hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels as the most promising option for moving heavy goods over long distances. At the other end of the spectrum, regions including Sub Saharan Africa and North East Eurasia remain far away from establishing the infrastructure and producing the quantities of renewable electricity required to decarbonize road transport.

Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO at DNV said: “Our Transport in Transition report highlights the challenges facing the industry and where further policies and investments are urgently needed to fast-track decarbonization of the transport sector. There is a pressing need for reliable non-fossil fuels to support emission reductions, particularly in the maritime and aviation sectors. It is essential that policy makers accelerate efforts to incentivize research and development, pilot projects and commercial uptake of carbon-neutral and zero-carbon fuels across the transport sector to support mid-century net zero goals.”

The report also underlines the clear challenge in deriving a single solution for the decarbonization of transport with a number of constraints associated to the adoption of biofuels, renewable electricity and CO2. There is no ‘one size fits all’ with a variety of energy sources needed to tackle the challenge in each sector, such as BEVs for passenger vehicles and trucks, fuel cell electric vehicles for the heaviest long-distance trucks, and bio- or hydrogen-based synthetic low or zero-carbon fuels for maritime and aviation.

Encouragingly, as the aviation sector strives to support decarbonization efforts, the results highlight that biofuels are set to supply a quarter of aviation demand by 2050. However, the report emphasises the importance of governmental and industry back-up to manage the rise in advanced biofuels for aviation and maritime, with the sustainable fuel expected to be more expensive than fossil fuel counterparts. On the other hand, for sectors that can use direct electrification, future users will gain from superb efficiency in electric drivetrains and experience cheaper transport.

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MOL joins GCMD as impact partner to accelerate decarbonisation

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MOL joins GCMD as impact partner to accelerate decarbonisation. Image: Pixabay
MOL joins GCMD as impact partner to accelerate decarbonisation. Image: Pixabay
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The Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation GCMD and MOL announced the signing of a five-year Impact Partnership agreement. On the same day, both parties held a signing ceremony at the GCMD office in Singapore.

Decarbonisation in the maritime industry is a challenge that needs to be achieved through accelerating collaboration and increasing investment by shipping companies, their customers, ports, energy suppliers and public sector actors. As an Impact Partner of GCMD, MOL will utilise its expertise developed over their long history and make various contributions and collaborations through its participation in GCMD’s projects, including providing access to vessels, operating data and evaluation reports so that internal learnings can be shared publicly and used for future trials.

MOL is one of the world’s leaders in the maritime industry and has been leading worldwide discussions on achieving decarbonisation. The carbon budget concept imposes a ceiling to the cumulative amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) that can be emitted globally in order to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius by 2050. Intermediate targets to reduce emissions, in addition to a net-zero target, are necessary. While plans are in place to adopt low or zero emissions vessels in the future, it is important to deploy measures to reduce emissions now. Such measures include the use of low-carbon and transition fuels that are available today, and deploying energy savings devices onboard vessels. MOL will bring its extensive capabilities and experience to bear as it joins GCMD and existing partners to accelerate international shipping’s decarbonisation.

Professor Lynn Loo, CEO of the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation, said: “We are proud to have MOL, one of the leading shipowners in Japan, come onboard as an Impact Partner. We are excited to tap on MOL’s track record in developing technical energy efficiency measures to broaden our perspective as we scope an initiative to help increase industry adoption of measures that can increase fuel efficiency of ships.”

Toshiaki Tanaka, Representative Director, Executive Vice President Executive Officer, and Chief Operating Officer of MOL, said: “We are very pleased to be a partner of one of the most important global coalitions. We will make our biggest effort to contribute and accelerate progress towards the net zero future in maritime industry, together with GCMD and all its partners.”

About the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation

The Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) was set up on 1 August 2021 as a non-profit organisation. Our strategic partners include the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), BHP, BW Group, Eastern Pacific Shipping, Foundation Det Norske Veritas, Ocean Network Express, Seatrium, bp, Hapag-Lloyd and NYK. Beyond the strategic partners, GCMD has brought on board 15 partners that engage at the centre level, in addition to more than 80 partners that engage at the project level.

Strategically located in Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub and second largest container port, GCMD aims to help the industry eliminate GHG emissions by shaping standards for future fuels, piloting low-carbon solutions in an end-to-end manner under real-world operations conditions, financing first-of-a-kind projects, and fostering collaboration across sectors.

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Hapag-Lloyd partners with DB Schenker to decarbonise supply chains

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Hapag-Lloyd partners with DB Schenker to decarbonise supply chains. Image: Hapag-Lloyd
Hapag-Lloyd partners with DB Schenker to decarbonise supply chains. Image: Hapag-Lloyd
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Hapag-Lloyd has entered into a partnership with DB Schenker for the purpose of decarbonising supply chains. Following the launch of “Ship Green” in May, the renowned logistics provider has selected Hapag-Lloyd’s sustainable transport solution as part of its sustainability initiatives.

DB Schenker and Hapag-Lloyd have signed an agreement for emission-reduced container transports with a waste- and residue-based biofuel. By end of 2023, DB Schenker plans to claim approximately 3,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions avoidance. This is based on at least 1,000 tonnes of pure biofuel.

“We are excited about this new partnership with DB Schenker as we share the common goal of making logistics more sustainable. Collaborations like these set a clear signal in the industry and are another example of a step-by-step approach to further decarbonise supply chains”, said Henrik Schilling, Managing Director Global Commercial Development at Hapag-Lloyd.

“I am very pleased that together with Hapag-Lloyd we are setting another example for sustainability in our industry. This partnership further enlarges our global biofuel offer in ocean freight. With this commitment we are one step closer to our goal of becoming carbon-neutral”, said Thorsten Meincke, Global Board Member for Air & Ocean Freight at DB Schenker.

Hapag-Lloyd has launched the Ship Green product to offer its customers emission-reduced ocean transports. Based on biofuel, customers of Hapag-Lloyd can add Ship Green as an additional service to their existing bookings – thereby avoiding CO2e emissions. Using the so-called “Book & Claim” chain of custody, Hapag-Lloyd can attribute avoided emissions to all ocean-leg transports, regardless of the vessel and route used. Ship Green is available for all shipments containing standard, hardtop or tank equipment. By offering Ship Green, Hapag-Lloyd is continuing along its path towards achieving climate-neutral fleet operations by 2045.

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EU member states agree to the “FuelEU Maritime” regulation

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EU member states agree to the "FuelEU Maritime" regulation. Image: Port of Hamburg
EU member states agree to the "FuelEU Maritime" regulation. Image: Port of Hamburg
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EU Member States cleared the way to bring sustainable renewable fuels into maritime transport. They approved the “FuelEU Maritime” regulation. The EU Parliament had also voted in favour of the agreement reached in the trilogue procedure.

The new requirements will apply to ships with a gross tonnage of more than 5,000 entering, leaving or staying in ports in the territory of an EU Member State. In addition, shore-side electricity will be mandatory for container and passenger ships from 2030. The use of synthetic fuels from renewable energies will be specifically promoted for shipping.

Federal Minister of Transport Dr Volker Wissing:
After we were recently able to achieve a breakthrough for maritime climate protection at UN level, we are now pushing the actual transformation towards climate-neutral shipping at European level with the “FuelEU Maritime” initiative. The draft regulation is open to technology and takes into account the special competitive conditions in the maritime transport sector. The main objective is to increase the demand for renewable and low-carbon fuels and their consistent use, thereby decisively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in maritime transport. The initiative is thus expected to play a fundamental role in the implementation of the European Climate Change Act for shipping.

Federal Environment Minister Steffi Lemke:
Today the EU has set a decisive course for more climate protection and the use of renewable fuels in maritime transport. Shipping companies will continue to rely on fuels in the future, because electric drives are not yet an option for long-distance transport. In maritime transport, e-fuels from renewable energies are therefore a sensible climate-friendly alternative. With the new requirements, the EU is giving manufacturers and shipping companies the necessary planning security, driving forward the development of modern technologies and making renewable fuels for maritime transport ready for the market. But there are also shadows: The fact that fuels from fossil sources and nuclear energy are also permitted as a compliance option is regrettable. The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV) will continue to advocate the use of predominantly synthetic fuels from renewable energy sources in order to make maritime transport climate neutral.

FuelEU Maritime lays down uniform EU-wide rules for limiting the greenhouse gas intensity of the energy used on board a ship, and thus above all the fuels. The regulation from the Fit for 55 package stipulates that shipping in the EU must reduce its emissions by 2 percent from 2025, 6 percent from 2030, 14.5 percent from 2035, 31 percent from 2040, 62 percent from 2045 and 80 percent from 2050. The GHG intensity reduction targets are set against the 2020 average GHG intensity of energy consumed on board ships. The greenhouse gas emissions of all fuels are assessed on the basis of a life cycle assessment (so-called well-to-wake (WtW) approach that includes the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide). All fuels are permitted as a compliance option; the legislative initiative is thus technology-neutral.

The use of synthetic fuels is encouraged by a special mechanism: if the share of synthetic fuels from renewable energy sources (so-called “renewable fuels of non-biological origin, RFNBO) in the fuel mix does not exceed one percent in 2031, a mandatory minimum quota of two percent for these RFNBO fuels will automatically come into force from 2034. Beyond the use of alternative fuels, the FuelEU Maritime Regulation obliges container and passenger ships in ports in the territory of a Member State to use shore-side electricity or alternatively zero-emission technologies for on-board energy supply.

This Regulation shall enter into force on the twentieth day following that of its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union. It shall apply from 1 January 2025, with the exception of certain Articles which shall apply from 31 August 2024.

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