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EIA revises global liquid fuels demand growth down because of the coronavirus

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EIA revises global liquid fuels demand growth down because of the coronavirus. Image: Pixabay
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In the February 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global liquid fuels demand will average 101.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, 1.0 million b/d more than the 2019 average but 378,000 b/d less than was forecast in the January 2020 edition of the STEO. The change in the forecast is driven by a combination of lower-than-expected heating fuel consumption caused by the Northern Hemisphere’s warmer-than-expected winter, an expected slowing of economic growth in general, and the particular economic effects of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

EIA estimates that COVID-19 will reduce China’s total petroleum and liquid fuels demand by an average of 190,000 b/d in 2020. This forecast is based on estimates of three components:

  • The reduction in demand for petroleum and liquid fuels caused by the general decline in Chinese economic activity as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)
  • The volume of foregone jet fuel consumption in China caused by flight cancellations
  • The additional impact on China’s demand for other transportation fuels

As with any forecast, EIA’s estimates contain a number of uncertainties and limitations. Notably, this forecast is particularly sensitive to the duration of the demand disruption caused by COVID-19. EIA assumes that the timing of COVID-19’s impact on petroleum demand will follow a similar path as the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak: demand reductions will intensify in February, peak in March, and steadily decline during April, May, and June. GDP-induced impacts will linger through December.

However, the 2003 SARS coronavirus and COVID-19 have different rates of transmission, detection, and mortality. Consequently, EIA considered the example of the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak when estimating duration and peak of the demand impacts, but it did not consider it when estimating the levels of petroleum demand reductions.

Based on estimates from Oxford Economics, economic growth in China will rebound once COVID-19’s impact has faded, and EIA expects petroleum demand to approach the levels forecast in the January STEO near the end of the year. EIA will update its estimates in regular STEO releases.

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Oil and Gas

ADNOC launches first high-speed hydrogen refueling station in Middle East

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ADNOC launches first high-speed hydrogen refueling station in Middle East. Image: ADNOC
ADNOC launches first high-speed hydrogen refueling station in Middle East. Image: ADNOC
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ADNOC, announced that it has begun construction on the Middle East’s first high-speed hydrogen refueling station. The station, which is being built in Masdar City by ADNOC, will create clean hydrogen from water, using an electrolyser powered by clean grid electricity.

Hydrogen, which creates no carbon dioxide emissions when used, has the highest energy per mass of any fuel and can give vehicles a longer driving range and quicker refueling times compared with battery electric vehicles.

ADNOC also announced a partnership with Toyota Motor Corporation and Al-Futtaim Motors to test the high-speed hydrogen refueling station using a fleet of clean hydrogen-powered vehicles.

His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, said: “The need to reduce carbon emissions to address climate change is clear and urgent. ADNOC is placing sustainability and decarbonization at the heart of its strategy and, while we decarbonize our operations today, we are making robust investments to be a supplier of choice for the clean energies of tomorrow.

“Hydrogen will be a critical fuel for the energy transition, helping to decarbonize economies at scale, and it is a natural extension of our core business. Through this pilot program, we will gather important data on how hydrogen transportation technology performs as we continue to develop the UAE’s hydrogen infrastructure.”

Under the partnership, Toyota and Al Futtaim Motors will provide a fleet of hydrogen-powered vehicles. The pilot program will help ADNOC understand how hydrogen with high-speed refueling can best be used in mobility projects to support the UAE’s National Hydrogen Strategy, which aims to position the country among the largest producers of hydrogen by 2031.

ADNOC Distribution will operate the station upon its completion later this year. A second station, in Dubai Golf City, will be fitted with a conventional hydrogen fueling system.

ADNOC has allocated $15 billion (AED55 billion) to advance and accelerate lower-carbon solutions, investing in new energies and decarbonization technologies to reduce its carbon intensity by 25% by 2030 and enable its Net Zero by 2050 ambition.

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Maritime

NYK to build its sixth LPG dual-fuel very large LPG / ammonia carrier

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NYK to build its sixth LPG dual-fuel very large LPG / ammonia carrier. Image: NYK Line
NYK to build its sixth LPG dual-fuel very large LPG / ammonia carrier. Image: NYK Line
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NYK announces the order of its sixth liquefied petroleum gas dual-fuel very large LPG / liquefied ammonia gas carrier from Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. The ship will be built at the KHI Sakaide Works shipyard and is set for delivery in 2026.

This vessel is the eighth in NYK’s fleet of LPG-fueled LPG carriers and the sixth in a new type of vessel capable of carrying ammonia and thus flexibly responding to various trade patterns.

Furthermore, in addition to the LPG dual-fuel engine, the ship will have a shaft generator that can generate electricity during the voyage by using the rotation of the shaft that connects the main engine to the propeller. Since the diesel generator can be stopped during regular seagoing transit, realizing full navigation with LPG fuel will be possible except for the use of a small amount of pilot fuel as an ignition source.

When LPG is used as fuel, exhaust gas from the ordered VLGC will contain at least 95% less sulfur oxide and 20% less CO2 than NYK’s conventional VLGCs using heavy-oil fired engines.

This new VLGC will comply not only with the SOx Global Cap regulations* that were tightened from January 2020 but also with the IMO’s Energy Efficiency Design Index Phase 3 regulations, which implemented stricter CO2 emission standards from April 2022.

Moreover, the vessel is expected to be given notations by Nippon Kaiji Kyokai  as a VLGC that has a preparatory design in accordance with the guidelines issued by ClassNK so that this vessel may use ammonia fuel in the future.

Vessel Particulars

Length overall: approx. 230 meters
Breadth (moulded): 37.20 meters
Depth (moulded): 21.90 meters
Summer draft (moulded): 11.65 meters
Tank capacity: approx. 86,700 cubic meters

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Maritime

NYK supplies biodiesel fuel to the wood-chip carrier Daio Austral

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NYK supplies biodiesel fuel to the wood-chip carrier Daio Austral. Image: NYK Line
NYK supplies biodiesel fuel to the wood-chip carrier Daio Austral. Image: NYK Line
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NYK supplied biodiesel fuel at Kinuura port to the wood-chip carrier Daio Austral, which transports wood chips for Daio Paper Corporation. This was the first oceangoing vessel operated by NYK to receive biodiesel fuel in Japan. The ship then made a test voyage to Cai Lan port in Vietnam, arriving safely on June 29 local time.

Toyota Tsusho Marine Fuel Corporation supplied the biofuel, and while sailing, the ship verified the main engine and generator conditions when using the biofuel.

Biofuels are considered to be carbon-neutral because the carbon dioxide that is absorbed by the source of the biomass is equal to the carbon dioxide that is released when the fuel is burned. Since biofuels can also be used in heavy oil–fired engines, they are considered to be a powerful means of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the transition from heavy oil to zero-emission fuels.

From fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2022, the NYK Group successfully conducted test voyages using biofuels on seven oceangoing vessels, mainly bulk carriers and two tugboats. In fiscal 2023, the NYK Group aims to conduct test voyages on multiple ships, and this trial was completed with the cooperation of Daio Paper Corporation.

NYK will continue to actively introduce biofuels and other next-generation fuels to promote decarbonization in marine transportation.

About Daio Austral

Length Overall: 210 meters
Breadth: 36.5 meters
Gross Tonnage: 49,035 tons
Deadweight Tonnage: 60,575 tons
Year Built: 2009
Shipyard: Oshima Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. (Saikai City, Nagasaki Prefecture)

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